U.S. economic statistics over the previous month, capped by Friday's unexpectedly high employment report, has been stronger than Vice President Kamala Harris could have imagined before the election.
After years of running hot under Ms. Harris and President Biden, important inflation indices have recently dipped around the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate. Mortgage rates plummeted to their lowest level in two years as a result of the half-point interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve in an effort to stimulate economic activity. Once inflation is taken into account, the Commerce Department has verified that the economy has risen at a strong 3% annual rate throughout the last year. In 2023, the average household's income, after adjusting for inflation, increased, according to the Census Bureau.
1111l
Those figures had given Democrats hope, especially White House officials and those associated with Ms. Harris's campaign. In recent surveys, Ms. Harris has been positioned to challenge, if not surpass, former President Donald J. Trump in terms of ability to manage the economy and inflation.
The 254,000 new jobs and pay growth outpacing price increases in Friday's employment data, however, seemed to instill a healthy dose of optimism among Harris's supporters. In an effort to prevent a potential economic catastrophe only one month before the election, the dockworkers went on strike but later decided to return to work until the end of the year, prompting the release of the study.
Trump has accused Harris and President Joe Biden of being to responsible for the high cost of borrowing money and food prices, which continues to be a prominent topic in the 2024 presidential election. A "superb report" according to Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee about the employment statistics.
"You really couldn't ask realistically for a better report for the economy — paired with finding out that the port strike is not going to be a prolonged concern, and that at least for months, this is not going to be an issue," Goolsbee said. "Those are two terrific bits of news."
Democrats are banking on the public's view of the economy, which has plagued the Biden-Harris administration due to voters' disapproval of rising inflation and its impact on incumbents' fortunes in elections throughout the globe, to improve and reflect the generally positive topline statistics.
According to interim Secretary of Labor Julie Su, "many people expected that we would not be able to achieve this — have this sort of recovery and have amazing job creation while keeping the unemployment rate low, while bringing down inflation and interest rates" (Friday). A plethora of such things have just taken place.
The Trump campaign said that the data demonstrated a decline in manufacturing employment, implied that immigrants were reaping the majority of the economic benefits, and highlighted the persistent inflationary pressures.
"In the past two months alone, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have contributed to the loss of 34,000 manufacturing jobs as a result of her weak economic policies. What's more, her open border policies have resulted in the destruction of 825,000 jobs for native-born Americans while 1.2 million foreign-born workers have gained employment," stated Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
In recent weeks, Trump and Harris have unveiled competing economic strategies. Trump wants to slash taxes and impose massive tariffs to bring supply chains to the United States. Harris, on the other hand, wants to label the tariffs a sales tax. In her "opportunity economy" plan, she proposes raising corporate taxes, increasing the size of a tax credit for new businesses, and increasing payments for child benefits.
"The combination of this robust employment market and reducing inflation is yielding substantial real pay and income improvements," said Jared Bernstein, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "Although they remain the driving forces behind economic increase, other factors like as record investment in vital industries, a surge in entrepreneurial activity, and improvements in worker bargaining strength are contributing to make sure that workers receive a fair share of this growth."
Mr. Biden, who has tried to be both positive about the economy and sensitive to the problems caused by years of rapidly increasing prices, seemed even more optimistic than usual in his remarks after the employment data.
Adding over 250,000 new jobs in September and bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% were positive developments for American workers and families, he said today.
Optimism was lower among economists working alone. While acknowledging the positive data, several of them cautioned that they might be deceiving and that the Federal Reserve may have to keep cutting interest rates in the coming months to prevent unemployment from increasing.
Noting the strength of the September employment data, ING's chief international economist James Knightley noted as much in a research note. However, he also cautioned that individual opinions among Americans about the state of the employment market can obscure the data. "In our opinion, the risks still lean towards slower growth."
×